Every year at the end of November, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) publishes its supply security forecast for the coming winter season. Like its predecessors, Winter Outlook 2019/2020 is a concise document that provides valuable information on where bottlenecks are most likely to occur, or which are the main risks to the security of the pan-European electrical transmission system. The Outlook forecasts have been carefully calculated on the basis of a comprehensive database to provide a reliable risk assessment for the next European electricity winter.
The main positive message is that general European security of supply is ensured under normal conditions. Nevertheless, the Outlook indicates that in the event of cold spells, i.e. temperatures 10 degrees below average, combined with unforeseen outages and low renewable generation, there are potential risks in Belgium and France in January 2020. Under these extreme conditions, both countries would be heavily dependent on imports and in some cases on available out-of-market measures. Furthermore, close monitoring would be required, and ENTSO-E explicitly requests in such cases the support of regional security coordinators (RSCs), such as the Munich-based TSCNET Services.
As usual, ENTSO-E presents the Winter Outlook together with the Summer Review 2019, an overview of last summer’s events. Some heat waves were registered, but without any impact on the power supply.