The European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) has released the new 2019 edition of the Midterm Adequacy Forecast (MAF). In this context, “adequacy” refers to the balance between electricity generation and demand and the forecast is based on a comprehensive mathematical analysis of future pan-European supply security over the period up to 2021 and 2025. The MAF examines not only the interdependencies of supply and demand, but also of storage, climatic conditions, and interconnection capacity. This year, the data granularity and quality were further improved, in particular, with information on thermal generation, an improved hydrological database and a new calculation methodology for demand time series.
The results of MAF 2019 show a low risk for adequacy. However, the MAF also underlines the increasingly important role of cross-border cooperation between transmission system operators (TSOs) in promoting adequacy throughout the interconnected pan-European electricity system. As in the previous issue, MAF 2019 includes a low carbon scenario that considers the impact of the decommissioning of coal-fired plants by 2025. Here the results for some market areas directly or indirectly affected show increased risks. Sources of flexibility such as demand side patterns, storage, interconnections and enhanced and smarter integration of renewable and distributed energy sources are thus required.
The MAF is part of the broader 10-year Network Development Plan (TYNDP), which assesses system needs up to 2040. The results of MAF 2019 will be open to public consultation until 13 January 2020. In addition, ENTSO-E will organise a public webinar on 4 December to discuss the MAF results.